Universal Cash Transfers and Labor Market Outcomes

One major criticism of Universal Basic Income is that unconditional cash transfers discourage recipients from working. Evidence to date has largely relied on targeted and/or conditional transfer programs. However, it difficult draw conclusions such programs because universal may induce a positive demand shock by distributing large portion the population, which in turn offset any negative labor supply responses. We estimate causal effects short-run market activity exploiting timing and variation size long-running transfer: Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend. find evidence both response transfers. Small number hours worked are found for women, especially those with young children. In contrast, we an increase probability employment males months following distribution. Altogether, $1,000 per-person disbursement leads 0.8 percent contraction annual basis.